The CICA

Weekly Report Recap – Week of March 23rd, 2020

CICA Weekly Report 3-30-2020
The Economic Impact of the Coronavirus


 
Dow Jones – The Dow Jones Industrial Average provides a view of the US stock market and economy. Originally, the index was made up of 12 stocks, it now contains 30 component companies in various industries. For more components based information visit their website, http://us.spindices.com/indexology/djia-and-sp-500/?go=industrial-components. For more general information please visit their website, http://us.spindices.com/indexology/djia-and-sp-500?homepage=true.
Citation:
S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJIA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DJIA.
S&P – The S&P 500 is regarded as a gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. The index includes 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, which are publicly held on either the NYSE or NASDAQ and covers 75% of U.S. equities. Since this is a price index and not a total return index, the S&P 500 index here does not contain dividends.
Citation:
S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P 500 [SP500], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
Nasdaq – The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market capitalization weighted index with more than 3000 common equities listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts (ADRs), common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and tracking stocks. The index includes all NASDAQ listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures.
Citation:
NASDAQ OMX Group, NASDAQ Composite Index [NASDAQCOM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM
Russell 2000 – The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000® Index is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 2000® is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
Citation:
NASDAQ OMX Group, NASDAQ Composite Index [NASDAQCOM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate – For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.pdf and http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/yieldmethod.aspx.
Citation:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate [DGS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10.
2-10-Year Treasury Spread – Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2).
Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y.
Effective Fed Fund (EFFE) – The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate. As previously stated, this rate influences the effective federal funds rate through open market operations or by buying and selling of government bonds (government debt). (2) More specifically, the Federal Reserve decreases liquidity by selling government bonds, thereby raising the federal funds rate because banks have less liquidity to trade with other banks. Similarly, the Federal Reserve can increase liquidity by buying government bonds, decreasing the federal funds rate because banks have excess liquidity for trade. Whether the Federal Reserve wants to buy or sell bonds depends on the state of the economy. If the FOMC believes the economy is growing too fast and inflation pressures are inconsistent with the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, the Committee may set a higher federal funds rate target to temper economic activity. In the opposing scenario, the FOMC may set a lower federal funds rate target to spur greater economic activity. Therefore, the FOMC must observe the current state of the economy to determine the best course of monetary policy that will maximize economic growth while adhering to the dual mandate set forth by Congress. In making its monetary policy decisions, the FOMC considers a wealth of economic data, such as: trends in prices and wages, employment, consumer spending and income, business investments, and foreign exchange markets.
The federal funds rate is the central interest rate in the U.S. financial market. It influences other interest rates such as the prime rate, which is the rate banks charge their customers with higher credit ratings. Additionally, the federal funds rate indirectly influences longer- term interest rates such as mortgages, loans, and savings, all of which are very important to consumer wealth and confidence.(2)
References
(1) Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Federal funds.” Fedpoints, August 2007.
(2) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Monetary Policy”. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/default.htm.
Citation:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Effective Federal Funds Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
5yr5yr Forward – This series is a measure of expected inflation (on average) over the five-year period that begins five years from today.
This series is constructed as:
(((((1+((DGS10-DFII10)/100)) ^10)/((1+((DGS5-DFII5)/100)) ^5)) ^0.2)-1) *100
where DGS10, DFII10, DGS5, and DFII5 are the 10 year and 5-year nominal and inflation adjusted Treasury securities. All of those are the actual series IDs in FRED.
Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate [T5YIFR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR
10-year BE Inflation Rate – The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 10 years, on average.
Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T10YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
ICE – BofAML US High Yield Master II Effective Yield – This data represents the effective yield of the ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Index, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publically issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, “global” securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index
ICE BofAML Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:
Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.
When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.
The index data referenced herein is the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC, its affiliates, (“ICE”) and/or its Third-Party Suppliers and has been licensed for use by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ICE, its affiliates and Third-Party Suppliers accept no liability in connection with its use.
Copyright, 2017, ICE Benchmark Administration. Reprinted with permission.”
Citation:
ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Effective Yield [BAMLH0A0HYM2EY], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread – The ICE BofAML Option-Adjusted Spreads (OASs) are the calculated spreads between a computed OAS index of all bonds in a given rating category and a spot Treasury curve. An OAS index is constructed using each constituent bond’s OAS, weighted by market capitalization. The ICE BofAML High Yield Master II OAS uses an index of bonds that are below investment grade (those rated BB or below).
This data represents the ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Index value, which tracks the performance of US dollar denominated below investment grade rated corporate debt publically issued in the US domestic market. To qualify for inclusion in the index, securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch) and an investment grade rated country of risk (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch foreign currency long term sovereign debt ratings). Each security must have greater than 1 year of remaining maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and a minimum amount outstanding of $100 million. Original issue zero coupon bonds, “global” securities (debt issued simultaneously in the eurobond and US domestic bond markets), 144a securities and pay-in-kind securities, including toggle notes, qualify for inclusion in the Index. Callable perpetual securities qualify provided they are at least one year from the first call date. Fixed-to-floating rate securities also qualify provided they are callable within the fixed rate period and are at least one year from the last call prior to the date the bond transitions from a fixed to a floating rate security. DRD-eligible and defaulted securities are excluded from the Index
ICE BofAML Explains the Construction Methodology of this series as:
Index constituents are capitalization-weighted based on their current amount outstanding. With the exception of U.S. mortgage pass-throughs and U.S. structured products (ABS, CMBS and CMOs), accrued interest is calculated assuming next-day settlement. Accrued interest for U.S. mortgage pass-through and U.S. structured products is calculated assuming same-day settlement. Cash flows from bond payments that are received during the month are retained in the index until the end of the month and then are removed as part of the rebalancing. Cash does not earn any reinvestment income while it is held in the Index. The Index is rebalanced on the last calendar day of the month, based on information available up to and including the third business day before the last business day of the month. Issues that meet the qualifying criteria are included in the Index for the following month. Issues that no longer meet the criteria during the course of the month remain in the Index until the next month-end rebalancing at which point they are removed from the Index.
When the last calendar day of the month takes place on the weekend, weekend observations will occur as a result of month ending accrued interest adjustments.
The index data referenced herein is the property of ICE Data Indices, LLC, its affiliates, (“ICE”) and/or its Third-Party Suppliers and has been licensed for use by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. ICE, its affiliates and Third-Party Suppliers accept no liability in connection with its use.
Copyright, 2017, ICE Benchmark Administration. Reprinted with permission.”
Citation:
ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread [BAMLH0A0HYM2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2,
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma – A crude stream produced in Texas and southern Oklahoma which serves as a reference or “marker” for pricing a number of other crude streams and which is traded in the domestic spot market at Cushing, Oklahoma. (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp)
Citation:
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO
Gold – The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price was launched on the 20th March 2015 to replace the historic London Gold Fix. ICE Benchmark Administration (IBA) provides the auction platform, methodology as well as overall independent administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price, with the LBMA holding the intellectual property rights. The price continues to be set twice daily (at 10:30 and 15:00 London GMT) in US dollars. Sterling and Euro prices are available, but they are indicative prices for settlement only. For further information contact the LBMA at Au.Consult@lbma.org.uk or the IBA at iba@theice.com.
Copyright, 2016, ICE Benchmark Administration.
Citation:
ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), Gold Fixing Price 3:00 P.M. (London time) in London Bullion Market, based in U.S. Dollars [GOLDPMGBD228NLBM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM
US Dollar Index: Major FX – A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue.
Major currencies index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. For more information about trade-weighted indexes see http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2005/winter05_index.pdf.
Citation:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, Goods [DTWEXM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXM,

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